Junta Drives Itself Into A Corner
- 30.05.2022, 12:04
Time is against the regime for sure.
The system has been living in prostration for a year and a half. Promises that opposition activists will be defeated and to live as before do not come true. Almost two years later, large-scale repressions are needed to maintain the impression that the junta controls at least something, writes the Nick and Mike Telegram channel.
Nick reports that confusion is felt well in the corridors of power. No one can offer a coherent picture of the world at the meetings: neither in the Regional Executive Committees, nor in the District Executive Committees, nor even at the Blue-fingered's meetings. There they threaten Ukraine with war, then they are worried about peace in the world. Middle-class officials have their brains blowing trying to follow this. In addition, the probability of war is quite frustrating by itself.
The situation with the absence of clear prospects for the future is even more dangerous for the security wing. People who are ready to beat other people just for salaries and loans should clearly understand that such a sinecure will last for a long time. Otherwise, there are options.
If earlier the motive that the Kremlin would help us worked, now there are more visits to the Kremlin elder, but the meetings after these visits are becoming more and more alarming. The Agrofuehrer did not return for a long time with good news about loans and credits after his visit to Russia.
So now the main course is Chinese assistance. Political instructors constantly present this particular country as the main assistant in a period of turbulence. Surely, the Blue-fingered saw the role played by China (along with Turkey) in Kazakhstan when the CSTO forces were thrown out in a couple of weeks. This really could be a strong card for the interests balance.
But the junta is wishful thinking. There are several important points:
1. China is very concerned that the instability in the region, which was launched just in 2020 after the elections in Belarus, threatens China's trade with the West. We've mentioned it many times.
2. China has frozen almost all joint projects. Now even those related loans that were allocated before are not allocated now. And this is understandable: China is never involved where the chances of ultimate success are not guaranteed.
3. China has changed its position on Russia. Chinese diplomats expressed cautious support for the Kremlin in the early days of the war, but now their politics have changed.
Moreover, there are analytical notes on Xi’s desk that clearly state that Russia’s defeat in Ukraine is a foregone conclusion.
It is clear for China that the involvement of the United States and Britain in the conflict only means that Russia will not be able to avoid a full-scale military defeat. The defeat, in turn, will entail a whole transformation both in Russia itself and in the region (China predicts that the post-Soviet states will go through another stage of de-Russification. And we already see this in Ukraine on the examples of the demolition of monuments and the renunciation of the church from the Russian Orthodox Church).
4. China does not even help Russian companies with sanctions-busting, as it is afraid of losing the markets of Europe and the United States. It is obvious that Belarus is of even less interest to China in this respect. The country simply has nothing to offer China in exchange for help.
Therefore, building political courses for the security forces through China is an obvious fraud. The arguments of political instructors are broken at the slightest analysis of at least how China behaves after August 2020. There should be no illusions. The creation of an alternative reality is bad because it always collides with life sooner or later. In which there is no place for fictional conclusions and sand castles.
Time is against the regime for sure. It keeps driving itself into a corner with hopes to delay the end. But this is an inherently unsolvable task. Tick-tock.