ISW: Battle For Donbass To End In Coming Weeks

• 21.07.2022, 8:12

Where will the Russian offensive stop?

The Russian offensive in Donetsk region, which is now underway, could result in limited advance in the Donbass north-east of the E40 highway and end with the occupation of Sloviansk or Bakhmut.

This was stated by analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to ISW, Russian forces have made little progress towards Sloviansk over the past few weeks, and continue reducing their offensive combat power in local battles over small and relatively unimportant settlements throughout Donetsk Region. In particular, Russian forces attempted to seize Seversk after capturing Lysychansk, but as of July 20, they had not yet made it to the town.

It is also noted that the Russian occupiers were not able to launch direct attacks in Bakhmut and were largely bogged down in fighting over small settlements to the east and south of it.

The efforts to attack Sloviansk came to a halt and no significant progress was made for several weeks.

"The resumption of the occupier's active offensive after a brief operational pause has not yet resulted in significant advance, although it is possible that a recovery of forces could bring limited success in the coming days. Russian troops are now barely moving over relatively sparsely populated and open terrain," the ISW stressed.

As ISW predicts, Russian troops will face terrain that will be much more favourable to Ukrainian defenders the closer they move to E40 around Sloviansk and Bakhmut.

This is attributed to the population density and development of these territories. Therefore, the current Russian offensive in the Donbass is likely to culminate somewhere along the E40 in the coming weeks.