'Consequences For Lukashenka Regime Will Be Predictable'
- 16.01.2025, 19:27
What is behind the secret exercises of the French special forces?
At the end of 2024, French special forces conducted top-secret exercises. They were preparing to repel an attack from Belarus on Kyiv.
How likely is this scenario today? For comment, Charter97.org asked the military expert Oleksiy Melnyk, the co-director of foreign policy and international security programs of the Razumkov Center in Kyiv:
— These were secret exercises, as the source said, so it is obvious that they were conducted under some potential solution. These exercises fit quite well into the context of the discussions that are now taking place, namely, the possibility of attracting foreign troops to help Ukraine directly on the territory of our country.
Yesterday, The Telegraph published three possible options for sending peacekeeping forces to the territory of Ukraine, one of them is the location of a foreign contingent along the border with Belarus, from where there is a potential threat of a second attack on the territory of Ukraine. That is, in parallel with some political statements, it is obvious that the French leadership has set the task for the military to check the readiness the armed forces in that case.
— The documents signed between Lukashenka and the Kremlin are similar to those signed with North Korea. That is, Belarusians can be involved in the war against Ukraine. Can Putin escalate without agreeing with Trump, and what role will the Belarusian army play in this case?
— Rather, the question is not to me, but to you, to Charter'97. Are Belarusians (here I mean the leadership of Belarus, the population of Belarus, the Belarusian military) ready to repeat the fate of the North Korean troops? Although Lukashenka is often called a dictator, an autocrat, I think he deserves it, but still, Belarus, thank God, is different from the regime that exists in North Korea.
I do not think that at the moment it's likely that Lukashenka can very easily and without consequences for his own regime send 10,000 troops, even, let's say, to the Kursk region, and then receive hundreds of coffins back to Belarus within a month. The consequences for his regime can be, let's say, quite predictable, especially in the context of the fact that 'presidential elections' are expected in Belarus in the near future. I have such a vision of the situation.
— What are the consequences: will there be strikes on military facilities, entry into the territory of Belarus and de-occupation?
— I would not conduct such logical chains directly. In this case, since we remembered North Korea, Russia has taken, let's call it that, some precautionary measures. The North Koreans are fighting on the territory of the Russian Federation, in the Kursk region, it's all happening on the territory of Russia
At least they have protected themselves from the accusation that North Korea is taking part in aggression on the territory of Ukraine.
If such agreements can take place between Lukashenka and Putin, then we will be talking about the Kursk region. In this case, the legitimacy of Ukraine's potential decisions to strike at the territory of Belarus itself, for example, will look rather doubtful.
It should be borne in mind that at the initial stage of the war, even if there is every reason to perceive Belarus as an aggressor in accordance with international law, based on the definition of aggression provided by the relevant UN resolutions, Ukraine refrained from striking Belarus.
If, even with all these reasons, this was not done, then in the case of such a scenario that we are now discussing, Ukraine will most likely again show restraint in order to prevent Lukashenka from legitimizing his support for the war.