'Russia Can Survive Only Through Smuggling'
- 29.01.2025, 14:21
Will the Kremlin survive the new arms race?
US President Donald Trump ordered the creation of a missile defence system in the United States, similar to the Israeli Iron Dome. On Monday, January 28, he issued a decree instructing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to submit an implementation plan for the “next-generation missile shield” within 60 days.
Is it technically possible to create a missile defence network that will cover the entire territory of the United States? The Charter97.org website talked about the situation with the Ukrainian defence observer of the Information Resistance Group, Oleksandr Kovalenko :
— Absolutely the entire airspace of the United States cannot be covered that way. A vivid example of this is the Soviet Union, which never had full coverage of its airspace. The capabilities of the Russian Federation in this regard have only decreased. Now Russia does not have a layered air defence system at all due to colossal losses and the inability to restore air defence in a timely manner.
Israel succeeded because it is a small country with a compact territory, which makes it possible to deploy air defence systems of various types: small, medium and long range, including transatmospheric ones. But here it is also very interesting that even Israel, despite its vaunted Iron Dome, faced difficulties. When it was attacked by the Yemeni Houthis and Iran using ballistic missiles, American THAAD systems of transatmospheric action were sent to the country, these are long-range systems. That is, even Israel could not completely close its airspace. Also, Israel is a rather small country, and it is easier for it to close its airspace, but in practice this was not the case.
I do not think that during the term of Donald Trump, in four years, the American defence industry will be able to produce a sufficient number of short, medium and long-range air defence systems to completely close the airspace over the entire country. Over key cities — yes, along the coasts — yes, in the most dangerous areas of possible enemy penetration — yes, it is possible. But over the entire territory — no, they will never be able to do this.
— What are the political implications of developing such a "next-generation missile shield"?
— This is the next stage of the arms race, which intensified after 2014, the stimulus of which was set by the Russian Federation, which then began a hybrid war against Ukraine. Russia has gradually begun to withdraw from several international agreements on the development of various weapons, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.
I think that this will simply be the next stage in which the United States has significantly more technological capabilities to achieve the corresponding results than any other country, including the Russian Federation and China.
— How would you assess the state and capabilities of Russia at the beginning of this arms race and now?
— To date, Russia has practically no potential, since before the start of this race, Russia actively used Western technologies to improve its weapons. Almost all air defence systems (and not only), all weapons that have appeared in Russia over the past 30 years, based on the Western technologies.
Aviation improved and improved its characteristics through the integration and introduction of Western technologies, tanks — in the same way as any other vehicles and weapons: artillery, missiles and so on. Almost all modern Russian defeat systems and equipment contain a large number of elements, spare parts, chips, microchips and semiconductors of Western production.
That is, Russia has evolved in matters of the military-industrial complex at the expense of the West, which supplied it with the appropriate technologies.
Today, Russia's ability to improve its equipment and fully participate in the arms race has significantly decreased. To date, they have been minimized, and Russia can survive only through smuggling. That is, everything that we now see in the Russian nomenclature, including missile weapons, cruise and ballistic missiles, are samples created using technologies that are smuggled into the country.